Mapping a possible Deval Patrick vs. Tim Cahill primary in 2010

CommonWealth Unbound: Mapping a possible Deval Patrick vs. Tim Cahill primary in 2010




So, basically, here is Commonwealth Unbound's preview of a Cahill vs. Deval matchup. And what does it show? Basically, Deval carries the socially liberal western part of the state, the North Shore, plus Boston and it's immediate suburbs. Plus Provincetown and Truro. Cahill carries central MA and the South Shore. So what can we tell from this? Well, let's compare the 2008 Hillary vs. Obama map, shown above the Cahill / Deval map. Does it look like Deval might be in trouble? I would say, yes, very much so.





This would be a very close contest. I would rate it as a tossup.

Now, let's look at the top-level numbers from the 2008 presidential primary. Demographically, Massachusetts SHOULD have been an Obama-friendly state. Why? (Thanks FiveThirtyEight)

Massachusetts is the MOST liberal state in the union. It is the most-educated state, with the 4th-highest per capita income. It also has the 11th-highest Starbucks - WalMart ratio. All of these factors should have accrued to Obama's benefit in this state.

So why didn't they? I'm glad you asked. Two factors stand out; first, MA has the 2nd highest Catholic population in the country. Catholics voted for Hillary 64-33. White Catholics voted for Hillary 67-31. Catholics accounted for 45% of the total vote according to MSNBC's exit poll. Second, Massachusetts has the third lowest proportion of men in the country. Women voted for Hillary 62-36.



Interesting. For all of the state's reputation for being progressive and enlightened, it appears, at least, that gender and religion played huge roles in the Massachusetts primary.

So what does this have to do with the Deval - Cahill matchup? This: I would rate the Cahill-Patrick race as a tossup: Cahill would basically end up with Hillary's numbers minus the gender gap.